Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 11 May, 2020

BUY recommendations are:  ABL, APL, ASTL, BAHL, BAFL, BOP, DGKC, FATIMA, FFBL, FFC, GATM, HBL, HMB, HUBCO, INDU, KAPCO, LUCK, MCB, NBP, NCL, NML, OGDC, POL, PPL, PSO, and UBL.

Top gainers of last week were: SHEL, YOUW, IDYM, HMM, and UNITY.

Top losers of last week were: HUBCO, LUCK, HBL, FFC, KTML, CHCC, SERT, DGKC, MLCF and MCB.

Volume leaders of last week were: HASCOL, UNITY, MLCF, TRG and PAEL.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) market index recorded losses in the outgoing week on back of profit-taking by investors. The benchmark KSE-100 Index closed at 33,268 levels by losing 884 points or 2.5 per cent. While KSE-30 index closed on 14,620 by losing 462 points or 3.06 percent.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.com, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Cyclicals, mainly cement stocks that had provided major support to the market in the earlier week following the government`s announcement of opening up of the construction sector went into profit taking after an increase in price of cement bags did not materialise.
  • Decline in cement diepatches by 24pc year-on-year in the same month and the massive fall in exports by 54pc year-on-year in April unnerved investors. Other than that, the market generally moved in line with the news flow on the economic side.
  • Optimism ignited by reduction in petroleum prices, support from International Financial Institutions and strengthening of rupee against the dollar. On the flip side, the International Monetary Fund`s dire prediction of total foreign reserves depletion by $1.9 billion in the next 15 months caused concerns while investors` confidence on furtherreduction in interest rates diminished after the 12-month treasury bill cut-off yield climbed by 28 basis points.
  • Pakistan`s addition to the UN`s Coronavirus Fund list; Pakistan`s formal application for $1.8bn in debt relief from G-20, the finalisation of $305 million loan from the Asian Development Bank, and widening of trade deficit by 42pc month-onmonth in April
  • Government moved to take over Rs800bn power sector circular debt
  • Exports plunging by 54% YoY to US$957mn in Apr’20 due to order deferrals and cancellation in face of COVID-19
  • Another important development during the week( was the reduction in regasiñed liqueñed natural gas prices. Analysts said they expected the chemical and textile companies operating in the north to be the key beneficiaries of the development.
  • Foreign investors dumped equities worth $17.8m in the outgoing week compared to net sale of $11.6m the previous week. Foreign selling was witnessed in the exploration and production sector amounting to $7.1m and commercial banks $5.1m. On the domestic front, major buying was seen by Individuals worth $20.3m and companies amounting to $5.7m. Average daily volumes edged higher by 6.5pc over the earlier weel( to 190m shareswhile average value traded decreased by Spc week-on-week to $46m
  • Sector-wise negative contributions came from commercial banks, down 231 points, cement 211 points, power generation and distribution 156 points, fertiliser 148 points and oil and gas exploration companies 99 points 
  • Sectors that helped lift the market included: oil and gas marketing companies 76 points, food and personal care products 34 points and technology and communication 21 points
  • Two other factors that could determine the market direction would be the upcoming budget and the results of the MSCI review due on May 12
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has asked the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to extend critical relief towards the capital markets and corporate sector in the upcoming budget
  • Foreign reserves held by the SBP increased $259 million to $12.3 billion and trade deficit widened by 42% month-on-month in April 2020
  • Pakistan’s fiscal deficit slashing to 3.8% of GDP in 9MFY20 vs. 5% of GDP during the same period last year
  • Slashing of all petroleum product prices by up to PkR30/ltr
  • SBP governor detailing out the impact of lockdown on GDP growth, ranging from -1.5% to -3%, depending on lockdown extension
  • Textile value chain allowed to resume operations in Punjab
  • GoP promising to bear 40% of first loss to banks on SME loans
  • IPP inquiry commission put on ice for two months

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Ltd. (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 75.73
Target Price: PKR 88.90

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 274.28
Target Price: PKR 394.40

Amreli Steels Limited (ASTL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 35.08
Target Price: PKR 49.00

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 55.08
Target Price: PKR  65.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 30.39
Target Price: PKR  38.0

Bank of Punjab (BOP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 9.07
Target Price: PKR 13.90

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 79.35
Target Price: PKR 106.85

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 22.00
Target Price: PKR 35.75

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 15.95
Target Price: PKR 24.4

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 106.94
Target Price: PKR 130.0

Gul Ahmad Textile Limited (GATM) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 27.15
Target Price: PKR 47.48

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 95.58
Target Price: PKR 154.40

Habib Metropolitan Bank (HMB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 28.09
Target Price: PKR 45.70

HUB Power Co. (HUBCO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 78.44
Target Price: PKR 101.05

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 959.81
Target Price: PKR 1,259

Kot Addu Power Co. (KAPCO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 21.67
Target Price: PKR 31.22

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 435.15
Target Price: PKR 555.32

Muslim Commercial Bank (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR   155.66
Target Price: PKR 185.40

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 27.42
Target Price: PKR 45.60

Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 30.53
Target Price: PKR 47.5

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 74.58
Target Price: PKR 134.8

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 103.05
Target Price: PKR 190

Pakistan Oilfields (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 314.39
Target Price: PKR 379.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 89.90
Target Price: PKR 143.40

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 160.11
Target Price: PKR 203.50

United Bank Limited (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 105.00
Target Price: PKR 167.20

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.com/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities. The information given in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.com/) is as of the date of this post and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This post is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for any investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each viewer of this post should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this post (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his or her own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. This blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.com/)  or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may be arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this post.

Written by: Rana Khuram

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