Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 30 Sep, 2017

BUY recommendations are:  ABL, ACPL, AICL, APL, ASL, ASTL, BAFL, BAHL, CHCC, DGKC, EFERT, EFOODS, ENGRO, FATIMA, FCCL, FFBL, FFC, GWLC, HBL, HASCOL, HCAR, HMB, HTL, HUBC, INDU, ISL, KOHC, LPL, LUCK, MARI, MCB, MEBL, MLCF, NBP, NATF, NCL, NCPL, NML, NPL, OGDC, PAEL, PIOC, PKGP, POWER, PPL, PSMC, PSO, PTC, TGL, and UBL.

Top gainers of last week were: FATIMA, CJPL, KEL, FEROZ, MUREB, OLPL, POL, FFC, IDYM and BOP.

Top losers of last week were: NBP, IGIIL, CHCC, FML, CSAP, SNBL, FCCL, JGICL, IBFL and SHFA.

Top Volume Leaders of last week: KEL, BOP, TRG, PIBTL, EFERT, FFC, PAEL, MLCF, SSGC, and DCR.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) market index witnessed range-bound trading behavior in the outgoing week with the index moving within a very narrow band. KSE-100 index has closed on 42,409 by losing -341 points or --0.80 % while KSE-30 index has closed on 21,606 by losing -275 points or --1.26 %.

Average trading volumes further declined by 14%WoW to 146mn shares from 171mn shares last week, likely due to religious event of Muharram. Activity was focused in retail favorite stocks, which included K-Electric (KEL: 97mn shares), Bank of Punjab (BOP: 45mn shares), Wateen Telecom (WTL: 32mn shares), The Resource Group (TRG: 31mn shares) and Kohinoor Spinning (KOSM: 27mn shares). In terms of traded value, Attock Refinery (ATRL), Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Pakistan Oilfield (POL), The Resource Group (TRG), and MCB Bank (MCB) remained the leaders with PKR3.2bn, PKR1.69bn, PKR1.34bn, PKR1.17bn, and 1.17bn, respectively.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

• There were no major political developments during the week, market remained range bound on lack of triggers. The result season also failed to induce investor interest
• Heavyweight sectors Banks and Cement dragged the benchmark index down by 239pts and 167 pts, respectively, while fertilizer sector contributed 69pts on improvement in international urea prices
• On individual basis, National Bank (NBP) plummeted 15.3%WoW, following Supreme Court’s unfavourable judgment in pension liability
• Pakistan Oilfields’ (POL) announcement of discovery allowed the stock to gain 6.6%WoW
• Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves amounted to $20 billion on Sept 22, down $48.1 million or 0.24 per cent from a week ago. Reserves of the SBP decreased $151m to $14.13bn due to external debt servicing and other official payments
• Defence ministry has given clearance for sale of 66.4% stake in K-Electric to Shanghai Electric power. However the issue of $1bn in dues still remains unresolved
• State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.75%. Going forward, there are anticipations of gain in exports on account of favourable global economic conditions, improvement in domestic energy supplies, and incentives given to exporting industry
• Local fertilizer names EFERT, FFC and FFBL scored fresh gains as they tracked movement in international urea prices, while lucrative dividend yields on offer helped in garnering investor’s attention towards these stocks
• Average urea prices (Middle East) eased by 15$/5% WoW to settle at US$275/ton, while futures were trading b/w US$260‐265 on Friday, pointing towards lower average prices in first week of October
• Later part of the week was focused on ex-premier’s and finance minister’s appearance before the accountability court, while a segment of the opposition parties was seen lobbying for bringing in a new leader of the opposition to enhance their voice in the lower house 
• With the implementation of a free trade agreement (FTA), which is about to be finalised, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Thailand will be doubled
• Cements (-3.7% WoW) were yet again a key laggard as provisional data for Sept-2017 suggests a decline of ~18% MoM in domestic demand during the month

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 87.49
Target Price: PKR 132

Attock Cement (ACPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 202.0
Target Price: PKR 315

Adamjee Insurance (AICL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 63.00
Target Price: PKR 90

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 625.7
Target Price: PKR 796

Aisha Steels Limited (ASL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 18.9
Target Price: PKR 30

Amreli Steels Limited (ASTL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 101.8
Target Price: PKR 156

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 42.4
Target Price: PKR 50

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 57.60
Target Price: PKR 72

Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 120.0
Target Price: PKR 251

Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 146.9
Target Price: PKR 262.0

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 62.91
Target Price: PKR 83

ENGRO Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 95.03
Target Price: PKR 138.66

ENGRO Corporations (ENGRO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 303.09
Target Price: PKR 400

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 34.05
Target Price: PKR 45.1

Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 32.5
Target Price: PKR 54

Fauji Fert Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 35.85
Target Price: PKR 67

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 83.1
Target Price: PKR 122.0

Gharibwal Cement Ltd. (GWLC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 33.21
Target Price: PKR 100.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 180.8
Target Price: PKR 253.08

Hascol Petroleum (HASCOL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 281.09
Target Price: PKR 428

Honda Atlas Cars (Pak) Ltd. (HCAR) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 539.5
Target Price: PKR 912.2

Habib Metro (HMB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 33.45
Target Price: PKR 52

Hi-Tech Lubricants (HTL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 98.54
Target Price: PKR 133

HUBCO (HUBC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 111.8
Target Price: PKR 144

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 1,720.82 
Target Price: PKR 2,214.3

Inter Steel Limited (ISL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 121.1
Target Price: PKR 178

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 150.0
Target Price: PKR 353

Lalpir Power (LPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 22.33
Target Price: PKR 32

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 565.2
Target Price: PKR 1,159.0

MARI Petroleum (MARI) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 1,505.0
Target Price: PKR 2,051

Muslim Commercial Bank (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 209.00
Target Price: PKR 250

Meezan Bank (MEBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 74.43
Target Price: PKR 91

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 84.0
Target Price: PKR 179.0

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 49.14
Target Price: PKR 74

National Foods (NATF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 340.00
Target Price: PKR 473

Nishat Chunian (NCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 54.52
Target Price: PKR 74

Nishat Chunian Power (NCPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 40.1
Target Price: PKR 59

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 145.10
Target Price: PKR 186

Nishat Power (NPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 44.9
Target Price: PKR 81

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 148.6
Target Price: PKR 200

Pak Elektron Ltd. (PAEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 76.0
Target Price: PKR 126.1

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 89.5
Target Price: PKR 161

Pakgen Power Limited (PKGP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 21.86 
Target Price: PKR 34

Power Cement (POWER) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 10.80
Target Price: PKR 16

Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 174.7
Target Price: PKR 218

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 457.67
Target Price: PKR 800.7

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 441.8
Target Price: PKR 490

Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 14.73
Target Price: PKR 19.00

Tariq Glass (TGL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 105.1
Target Price: PKR 128

United Bank Limited (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 190.2
Target Price: PKR 294

Thank you very much for reading this article.

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Written by: Rana Khuram