Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 19 Nov, 2016


Top gainers of last week were: Indus Dyeing, Hascol Petroleum Ltd, International Steels Ltd, Pak Services, Ghani Glass Ltd, Allied Rental Mod, Orix Leasing, Bank AL-Habib, Muree Brewery Co Ltd and Philip Morris (Lakson Tobacco).

Top losers of last week were: Indus Motor, Associated Services Limited, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Rafhan Maize Prod., Dawood Hercules Chem, Service Indus, United Bank, ICI Pakistan, Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd and Habib Bank Ltd.

Top Volume Leaders of last week: BOP, JSCL, TRG, KEL, SSGC, SNGP, FABL, PIBTL, PTC, MLCF, and PAEL.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) market index witnessed a dull week as investors remained cautious and preferred to book profits on the back of continuous foreign selling for consecutive ten days. The market tested the 43K level but failed to sustain it as the benchmark traded offcolor for most part of the week. KSE-100 index has reached on 42,325 by decreasing -524 points or -1.22 %.While KSE-30 index has reached on 22,776 by decreasing -424 points or -1.83 %.

According to experts of, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif Sunday inaugurated a trade route linking Gwadar port to the Chinese city of Kashgar as part of a joint multi-billion-dollar project (CPEC) to jumpstart economic growth in the South Asian country. The Cosco Wellington, a ship berthed at the deep-sea port in Balochistan, was loaded with over 150 containers - the first consignment under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor announced in 2014, which aims to link the Asian superpower's Xinjiang region with the Arabian Sea
  • The unnerving developments on the India-Pakistan border with reports of frequent mini-skirmishes kept market participants on the edge. Losses seen in the regional markets in the earlier part of the week reverberated at the PSX
  • The hearing of the Panama Gate scandal against the premier’s family also kept a check on proceedings
  • Foreigners have continuously remained net sellers, with net US$133mn worth of equities sold in 2016TD and US$75mn of net selling observed during the last two weeks alone
  • Government of Pakistan rejected bids worth PkR113bn (vs. PkR50bn target) in the month’s PIB auction as banks sought higher interest rates
  • Local banks and Individuals remained major buyers, absorbing mos of the foreign selling during the week
  • Talks of OGRA opening upto 200,000 gas connections for new customers
  • The OMC space witnessed HASCOL march ahead with renewed confidence as the leading international commodity group Vitol announced its intention to increase its holding in the company to 25% from its existing 15%
  • Cut in SLR of 5% for Islamic Banks by SBP
  • Cut in urea price of Rs50/bag by Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC)
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has projected GDP growth for Pakistan at 5-6% for FY17 due to anticipated resurgence in agriculture and industrial sectors, with the services sector expected to maintain last year’s momentum. The Cenetral Bank’s forecast is largely in agreement with the government’s own target of 5.7% 
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell by 68% YoY during Oct-16 to US$66.8mn compared to US$207.1mn in Oct-15. In 4MFY17, total FDI that came into the country stood at US$316.1mn (down 48% YoY)
  • Commercial banks (-1.9%) retreated during the week on account of profit taking after a recent surge wherein banking heavy weights like HBL (-4.1%) and UBL (-4.6%) contributed 130.55pts and 95.81pts respectively to the index decline
  • While HUBC and PSO too weighed on the index on account of their removal from MSCI Pakistan provisional index
  • Gawdar port to start operations in December
  • Away from the mine’s mouth: Lucky power plant to be the first to run on Thar coal
  • Thar coal-fired power project to be ready ahead of schedule
  • Prominent earnings announcement during the week included HCAR that reported slightly lower than anticipated net income, recording substantive improvement on a Y/Y basis driven by higher revenues
  • Omantel says going ahead with sale of controlling stake in WorldCall

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 105
Target Price: PKR 120

Attock Cement (ACPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 267.6
Target Price: PKR 329

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 33
Target Price: PKR 38

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 51
Target Price: PKR 60

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 187
Target Price: PKR 216

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 62.8
Target Price: PKR 83

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 289
Target Price: PKR 361

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 33.6
Target Price: PKR 39

Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 38.6
Target Price: PKR 47

Fauji Fert Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 53
Target Price: PKR 60

Current Price: PKR 103
Target Price: PKR 121

Indus Motors (INDU) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 1516
Target Price: PKR 1735

K-Electric (KEL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 9.1
Target Price: PKR 13

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 270.1
Target Price: PKR 353

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 730
Target Price: PKR 755

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 227
Target Price: PKR 243

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 108
Target Price: PKR 122

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 73
Target Price: PKR 80

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 140
Target Price: PKR 164

Pak Electron (PAEL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 71.4
Target Price: PKR 83

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 119
Target Price: PKR 137

Pakgen Power (PKGP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 25.4
Target Price: PKR 40

Pakistan Oil Fields Limited (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 418
Target Price: PKR 441

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 154
Target Price: PKR 177

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 521.7
Target Price: PKR 661

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 388
Target Price: PKR 490

Pakistan Telecommunications (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 18
Target Price: PKR 21.9

Tariq Glass (TGL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 101
Target Price: PKR 120

United Bank Limited (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 211
Target Price: PKR 235

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum ( is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

1 comment:

  1. Two questions pls :
    1) when you sayvtarget price, what is thetimeline we are targetting here, like 1 month 3 months etc ?
    2) i believe for a novice investor mentioning the probability of an stock reaching its target price would really help in calculating its risk and return. For instance:

    Stock A:
    current price 10
    Target price 20
    Tentative timeline x no.of months
    Probability 30%

    Stock B
    Current price 10
    Target price 14
    Timeline x no. Of months
    Probability 60%
    Looking at the probability, a novice investor would prefer stick B even though it is projected target price is lesser than stock A.

    Please comment.