Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Weekly Analysis 6 May, 2016

BUY recommendations are ABL, APL, BAFL, BAHL, DGKC, EFERT, ENGRO, FATIMA, FFBL, FFC, HBL, HCAR, INDU, KEL, LUCK, MCB, NBP, NCPL, NPL, OGDC, PIOC, POL, PPL, PSMC, PSO, PTC and UBL.

Top gainers of last week were: Feroz 1888 Mills Ltd, International Steels Ltd, Mari Petroleum, Arif Habib Corp, Lucky Cement, Ferozsons (Lab), MCB Bank Ltd, Nishat Mills Limited, ICI Pakistan and P.T.C.L.A.

Top losers of last week were: Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Indus Dyeing, Kohat Cement, Attock Refinery Ltd., Larpir Power Ltd, National Foods, B.O.Punjab, Askari Bank Ltd., EFU Life Assur Ltd.and Jah.Sidd. Co.

Top ten volume leaders: BOP, SNGP, PTC, TRG, PAEL, KEL, OGDC, KEL, PIBTL, OGDCL, JSCL, SSGC, and EFERT.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) market closed out its second week of gains with new highs, buoyed by news flow of reclassification of Pakistan from MSCI Frontier to Emerging markets. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index gaining 1255 points, or 3.61 percent, to close the week at 35,974 points. KSE 30-share Index gaining 889 points, or 4.40 percent, to end at 21,095 points.

The average turnover during the week recorded at 240mn shares against 242mn shares recorded previous week, depicting a downtick of 1% W/W.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:


  • Index heavy Oil & Gas sector was propelled by strength in global oil benchmarks
  • The most contribution to the index points came from OGDC, HBL, MCB, UBL, LUCK and ENGRO as they are the top contenders for the inclusion
  • Inflation increased to 4.17%YoY in Apr'16 from 3.94%YoY in Mar'16, mainly on the back of hike in food, fuel and rental indices
  • PTA is set to hold auctions for Next Generation Mobile Services (NGMS) spectrum (3G) on 11 Jun’16 targeted to generate PkR42bn revenue
  • The MoF has fiercely opposed allocation of gas from Mari field to EFERT, arguing that the fertilizer manufacturer has defaulted on payment of GIDC, whereas the MoPNR is seeking approval for allocating 60 mmcfd to Guddu power plant and 31mmcfd to EFERT
  • After rejecting the terms of reference (TORs) put forward by opposition parties, PM Sharif and his legal and political aides agreed to rope in opposition parties in negotiations to draft mutually acceptable terms for the proposed judicial commission to probe the Panama leaks
  • As result season comes to an unexciting close, investors look ahead to flashpoints, particularly upcoming MSCI's Annual Market Classification review (announcement on 14 Jun’16) where Pakistan is hopeful for re‐entry into EM status
  • On the commodity front, international crude has pulled back itself from recent highs of USD 48/barrel to USD 45/barrel without causing the local stock prices to retreat
  • During the week a net foreign inflow of ~USD16mn was witnessed, which follows a net outflow of USD12.41mn in the previous week
  • Government of Pakistan’s decision to revert the feed gas prices for old fertilizer plants was largely a non‐event as manufacturers will pass on the impact to farmers in order to off load their urea inventories
  • Auto sector had a rough week where PSMC and INDU ended flat while HCAR gained 2%
  • FBR has reduced sales tax on all petroleum products, including motor spirit on which sales tax has been brought down to PKR9.89/litre from May 1, 2016
  • USC raises pulses' prices by up to 40 %
  • Ogra has reduced natural‐gas rates for fertiliser plants but increased them for all power plants — both in public and private sectors — with backdated recovery
  • Hubco has announced that it will set up a 330MW based power project in Thar at a cost of USD500mn in partnership with other investors, subject to approval of the Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) 
  • Summit Bank eyes Burj Bank for Islamic banking entry


Following are few BUY recommendations:

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 90.48
Target Price: PKR 135.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 439.04
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 25.47
Target Price: PKR 32

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 43.49
Target Price: PKR 68

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 180.0
Target Price: PKR 237.0

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 70.09
Target Price: PKR 106.49

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 326.81
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 32.32
Target Price: PKR 49

Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 43.71
Target Price: PKR 50.0

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 54.62
Target Price: PKR 60.48

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 112.11
Target Price: PKR 124.19

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 199.04
Target Price: PKR 233.54

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 287.79
Target Price: PKR 330.00

Indus Motor (INDU) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 937.99
Target Price: PKR 1109.67

K-Electric (KEL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 7.2
Target Price: PKR 13.7

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 608.2
Target Price: PKR 652

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 228.26
Target Price: PKR 268

National Bank (NBP) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 55.82
Target Price: PKR 65.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 49.86
Target Price: PKR 63

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 50.01
Target Price: PKR 59

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 139.82
Target Price: PKR 160

Pioneer Cement (PIOC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 99.9
Target Price: PKR 123.0

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 333.1
Target Price: PKR 348

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 146.3
Target Price: PKR 168

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 380.66
Target Price: PKR 532

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 364.7
Target Price: PKR 456

Pakistan Telecommunications (PTC) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 15.2
Target Price: PKR 21.9

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY 
Current Price: PKR 171.61
Target Price: PKR 195.7

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

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