Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 8 Nov, 2015


Top gainers of last week were: TRG Pakistan Ltd, Pakgen Power Ltd., Larpir Power Ltd, Ibrahim Fibres, Packages Limited, Punjab Oil, International Steels Ltd, P.S.O., K‐Electric and Maple Leaf Cement

Top losers of last week were: Associated Services Limited, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Colgate Palmolive, Bata (Pak) Ltd., Engro Fertilizer, Pak Tobacco Co., Hum Network Ltd, Sui North Gas Pipe., J.D.W.Sugar and Bannu Woollen.

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, KEL, PAEL, JSCL, SSGC, SNGP, NML, MLCF, FCCL, FFBL, and EFERT.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market index remained flat over the week as it ended at 34,426.75 pts, up 0.5%WoW. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index lost 165 points, or 0.48 percent, to close the week at 34,427 points. KSE 30-share Index shed 138 points, or 0.67 percent, to end at 20,555 points.

Average traded volumes during the week increased to 156mn shares vs. 181mn shares in the past week (-13.8%WoW). However, average traded value followed reversed trajectory and was down by 2.35%WoW to US$83mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Investors remained on the sideline amid consolidate their positions as the focus has now shifted to the upcoming monetary policy to be announced in the mid of November
  • Foreigner continued the selling tune in line with previous momentum
  • E&P sector recovered 1%WoW lead by improvement in international crude prices where PSO remained the star performer in the sector on the back of an increase in local POL product prices and unexpectedly pleasant results announced last week
  • Rupee remained relatively stable against US$ during the week (PkR105.40-105.51). We believe that rupee may further depreciate against US$ in the upcoming two months
  • The country`s total liquid foreign exchange reserves reached comfortable levels of US$19.81bn during the week ending October 30
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cleared the next installment of US$502mn under Pakistan’s bailout package by mid-Dec 2015
  • Government of Pakistan increased prices of petrol and high speed diesel (HSD) by PkR2.5/ltr to PkR76.26/ltr and PkR1.75/ltr to PkR83.79/ltr respectively effective Nov 01 2015
  • Urea sales for Sep’15 chocked in at 193k tons depicting 54%YoY decline while DAP nose‐dived 92%YoY to 6.8k tons
  • Domestic cement sales during 4MFY16 increased 14.38%YoY while exports plunged by 27%YoY
  • FFC set to invest in a joint venture operation to set up a new fertilizer plant in Tanzania
  • Fresh buying was seen in cement scrips led by MLCF and PIOC on strong cement sales numbers for preceding month
  • Yarn manufacturers are acting like a cartel, the value‐added apparel sector claims, as they have raised prices by 50% to PKR1,200 per 100‐pound bag from PKR800 since the imposition of 10% import duty
  • Atlas Honda Limited (AHL), a joint venture of Atlas Group and Honda Motor Company, will invest USD100mn for expansion of its motorcycle operations in Pakistan. The board of directors approved a three year expansion plan to double the installed capacity of its Sheikhupura factory from the existing 0.6mn to over 1.2mn units per annum
  • Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Limited will introduce HR‐V, a 1,497cc completely built unit of Thailand origin in January 2016. The vehicle would cost around PKR3.5mn. The exact price, however, would be announced at the time of the launch based on the exchange rate. Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited is also planning to replace its flagship Suzuki Cultus with Celerio a 1,000cc hatchback by end‐2016 or the first quarter of 2017. Market is also abuzz with reports that the Indus Motor Company also considers starting local assembly of Toyota Vitz and Toyota Vios during 2018‐ 2020 

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 473.0
Target Price: PKR 542

Indus Motor (INDU) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 1,147.5
Target Price: PKR 1293.99

Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 139.2
Target Price: PKR 169.5

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 535.1
Target Price: PKR 665

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 74.3
Target Price: PKR 87.4

Fauji Cement (FCCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 35
Target Price: PKR 39.50

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 220
Target Price: PKR 268

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 125.6
Target Price: PKR 163.5

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 85.8
Target Price: PKR 125.00

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 47.0
Target Price: PKR 58.9

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 298.1
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Engro Foods Limited (EFOODS) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 152.6
Target Price: PKR 181.1

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 138.7
Target Price: PKR 174.8

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 329.6
Target Price: PKR 423.0

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 127.3
Target Price: PKR 193.8

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 353.1
Target Price: PKR 456.8

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 529.8
Target Price: PKR 620.0

K-Electric Co. (KEL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 7.9
Target Price: PKR 13.9 

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 86.2
Target Price: PKR 97.00

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 101.2
Target Price: PKR 168.5
Pakistan Telecommunication (PTC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 17.5
Target Price: PKR 25.1

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 99.1
Target Price: PKR 120.7 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.5
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 163.8
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 211
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 28.9
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 44
Target Price: PKR 68

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

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