Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 12 Oct, 2015


Top gainers of last week were: Shell Pakistan, Shifa International Hospitals, P.S.O., Kohat Cement, Pak Petroleum, Pak Oilfields, Mari Petroleum, ICI Pakistan, Punjab Oil and Oil and Gas Deve.
Top losers of last week were: Indus Dyeing, EFU Life Assur Ltd., Pak Tobacco Co, EFU General Ins, Bannu Woollen, Meezan Bank, Fauji Fert Bin, Fauji Fertilizer Co., Archroma Pakistan and MCB Bank Ltd.

Top ten volume leaders: TRG, PAEL, FCCL, MLCF, JSCL, KEL, FFBL, SNGP, SSGC, DGKC, and BOP.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market index dispelled an ‘upbeat’ aura where the week terminated at 873pts, up 2.65%WoW. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share Index gained 873 points, or 2.65 percent, to close the week at 33,843 points. KSE 30-share Index shed 609 points, or 3.08 percent, to end at 20,384 points.

Average traded volumes during the week remained flat at 175mn shares v.s. 178mn shares in the past week (down 1.67% WoW). On the same lines, average traded value went up by 20% WoW to US$92mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • GoP borrowing PkR97.6bn vs. targeted PkR50bn in PIBs auction with cut‐off yields for 3yr, 5yr and 10yr coming in at 7.196% (down 15bps), 8.180% (down 15bps) and 9.229% (down 11bps)
  • Comfortable reserves position as a result of US$505mn from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), US$500mn from issuance of Sukuk bonds and US$376mn under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF)
  • Moody’s assignment of a B3 rating to Pakistan’s global bond and regarding economic outlook as ‘stable’, and most importantly
  • IMF’s detailed assessment report on its eighth review under EFF managed to only uphold positivity with its allocation of a threshold for circular debt and an urge to improve recovery of DISCOS (Distribution Companies)
  • With the recent agreement between Fertilizer companies and the government pertaining to reduction in per bag prices, we believe the sector will likely turn in green as gas tariffs are subsequently reduced by the GoP as part of the deal
  • Sharp recovery was seen in international oil prices during the week as Arab Light/WTI Crude was up 12%/9% WoW. Resultantly, Oil & Gas sector at KSE index marched up 8% WOW
  • Oil & Gas, construction & material and Commercial banks were major gainers during the week, increasing by 8%, 4% and 2%, respectively. Tobacco and Life Insurance were major losers, down 4% and 3%, respectively
  • Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the largest political party in Karachi, agreed to take back their resignations from Parliament and Sindh Assembly following Govt.’s decision to form a grievance resolution committee
  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), through a KSE notice, has disclosed the discovery of gas from the Latif South-1 exploration well. PPL has a 33.34% stake in the joint venture of the Latif exploration license. Our analysts predict a positive impact of Rs0.18 on PPL's EPS
  • Book building of Amreli Steels Limited was completed. A total of 138.8mn shares were received against the offer of 55.5mn shares, at a strike price of Rs51/share.
  • Used auto parts Auto industry accused of misusing concessionary SROs
  • Pakistan’s cotton production likely to go down 11%
  • SBP injects PKR 1.3tn into banks

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 439.72
Target Price: PKR 542

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 248.09
Target Price: PKR 324.00

Indus Motor (INDU) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 1,025
Target Price: PKR 1293.99

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 125.64
Target Price: PKR 163.5

ENGRO Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 92.47
Target Price: PKR 118.7

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 46.30
Target Price: PKR 58.9

Engro Corporation (ENGRO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 310.74
Target Price: PKR 362.00

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 137.80
Target Price: PKR 212.00

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 324.78
Target Price: PKR 423.0

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 134.34
Target Price: PKR 193.8

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 333
Target Price: PKR 493

Attock Petroleum (APL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 539.20
Target Price: PKR 626.37

Nishat Mills (NML) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 103
Target Price: PKR 168.5 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 100.34
Target Price: PKR 135.00 

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 52.03
Target Price: PKR 69.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 161.97
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 202.93
Target Price: PKR 270

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 27.28
Target Price: PKR 34

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 42.00
Target Price: PKR 68

Dera Ghazi Khan Cement (DGKC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 146.19
Target Price: PKR 176

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 557.10
Target Price: PKR 665

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 73.51
Target Price: PKR 79.05

Fauji Cement (FCCL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 36.72
Target Price: PKR 39.50

Kohat Cement (KOHC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 211
Target Price: PKR 268

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

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