Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 5 April, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market regain momentum during the week, where index jump over 30k barrier to close the week at 31,413pts up 4.9%WoW. KSE-100 index closed on 31,414 by gaining 1456 points or 4.86% while KSE-30 index closed on 19,886 by gaining 817 points or 4.28%.

March is always considered to be the most volatile month in the history of Pakistan’s stock market. We believe stock market is likely to perform well in the upcoming days especially when the inflation is heading towards its lower levels, return on alternative assets (fixed income) may not be generating returns and cost of money become exceptionally cheap. Last week activity at the bourse picked up with average daily volumes clocking in at 254mn, up 45% WoW, while average daily value increased by 27% WoW to Rs12bn (US$117.5mn).

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Government, PTI sign accord to set up Judicial Commission
  • IMF release US$500mn tranche to country along with multi-year low inflation (2.5% in Mar’15) fueled the positive sentiment as the index closed on a positive trajectory
  • Amongst key sectors, major buying was seen in Technology, General Industries, Banks and Cement sector which were up by 7-10% WoW
  • The oil sector came under pressure on the back of possible Iran/US negotiation; hence investors shy away from the sector
  • The Sindh government announced its strong opposition to the FG decision to import LNG. CM Sindh government will challenge in SCP the FG decision to import LNG
  • The country has achieved the revised cotton target of 13.48 (89.38%) mn bales set for the outgoing season FY14‐15, but will fall short of the original target of 15.1mn bales
  • ECC of the Cabinet has lifted ban on import of wheat products and enhanced RD from 20 to 25% on wheat and wheat products to support the local market
  • Government of Pakistan has decided to supply entire imported cargo of 147,800 cubic meters of LNG to M/s Pak Arab Fertilizer, a joint venture of Arif Habib Group and Fatima Group
  • Share of IBI deposits, assets reaches double digits
  • MOL Pakistan, the operator of TAL Block, has made a significant hydrocarbon discovery at exploratory well Mardankhel‐I, which has been drilled and is currently under testing phase, a statement. POL has a 25% pre‐commerciality working interest in the block
  • Government of Pakistan partially increased the prices of petrol and HSD while it made no change in prices of other petroleum products
  • FBR has decided to decrease sales tax from 37% to 32% on high speed diesel oil from April 1, it is learnt. However, the sales tax rate on the remaining POL products would remain unchanged
  • The Government of Pakistan  raised PkR 76bn though MTB auctions with 3mth, 6mth and 12mth cut‐off yields at 7.96 (down 22bps), 7.94% (down 4bps) and 7.83% (stable) respectively
  • International oil prices declined (Brent down 3.77%) after Iran and world powers agreed the “key parameters” of a nuclear deal

Top gainers of last week were: Jah.Sidd. Co., Adamjee Ins, Cherat Cement, Maple Leaf Cement, Habib Metro Bank, National Bank of Pak, Pak Suzuki Motor, Dawood Hercules Chem, Pak Elektron and Pak Int.Bulk Ter.

Top losers of last week were: Indus Dyeing, Service Indus, Colgate Palmolive, Oil and Gas Deve., Pak Services, Archroma Pakistan, Mari Petroleum, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Pak Oilfields and Allied Rental Mod

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, PAEL, BOP, FCCL, TRG, DGKC, MLCF, JSCL, ENGRO, EFERT and PIBTL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 81.94
Target Price: PKR 97.0

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 172.44
Target Price: PKR 256.5

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 312.31
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 149.39
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 104.00
Target Price: PKR 140.0

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 185.62
Target Price: PKR 255.0

National Bank (NBP) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 58.42
Target Price: PKR 72.00

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 160.02
Target Price: PKR 194.00

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 26.68
Target Price: PKR 39.00

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 45.74
Target Price: PKR 68.00

MCB Bank Ltd (MCB) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 260.3
Target Price: PKR 310.0

Lucky Cement (LUCK) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 477.78
Target Price: PKR 552.00

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 79.32
Target Price: PKR 95.00

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 123.6
Target Price: PKR 153.5 

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 55.6
Target Price: PKR 61.0

Pak Suzuki (PSMC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 399.95
Target Price: PKR 495.00

Engro Fertilizer (EFERT) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 82.6
Target Price: PKR 103.2

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 39.2
Target Price: PKR 50.3

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. (FFBL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 50.2
Target Price: PKR 62.4

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 111.0
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 87.50
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 55.94
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 56.54
Target Price: PKR 43

Pakgen Power Ltd (PKGP) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 29.67
Target Price: PKR 24

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram


  1. The Sensex rallied 122.87 points to 28639.46 and the Nifty climbed 38.65 points to 8698.95.About 429 shares have advanced, 73 shares declined, and 92 shares are unchanged on the BSE.
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  2. Dear Mr.Rana Khurram Thanks for your expert opinions...