Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 7 March, 2015

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market continued its bearish momentum this week while remaining volatile, down 1.1%WoW, closing at 33,264. KSE-100 index closed on 33,264 by losing 368 points or -1.10%  while KSE-30 index closed on 21,695 by losing -222 points or -1.01%.

ADTO remained largely flat, up 0.7% WoW to 173mn shares, while ADV rose by 15% to US$103mn. FIPI registered yet another net outflow of US$4.4mn, though lower than last week’s outflow of about US$ 10mn.

According to experts of http://www.karachistockexchange.org, following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • Senate election results, in which neither PML (N) nor PPP were able to achieve absolute majority, were broadly in‐line with expectations
  • Negative sentiment prevailed across the board with index heavyweight sectors oil and gas and banks declining by 1.7% and 2.3% respectively. Other sectors posted a negative return of 2.0%
  • MCB and OGDC alone dragged the KSE-100 index by almost 127pts and 84pts respectively while UBL, ABOT and ENGRO cumulatively contributed 112pts during the week
  • Average daily volumes picked up by 13% WoW clocking in at 118mn against 104mn last week. Retail favourites, PAEL, JSCL and KEL led the volume charts
  • Foreigners again remained on the selling side cutting USD4.4mn worth of positions during the outgoing week
  • Petroleum prices to stay unchanged
  • Inflation rate recorded at 3.24% in February 2015
  • Reserves cross USD16bn mark by week-end
  • Further dip in CPI expected with another cut in DR in the offing
  • DGKC opens Letter of Credit for 30MW coal power plant
  • Cotton output hits record 14.7mn bales
  • According to recent statement by Moodys in its credit outlook, Pakistan govt’s support for the implementation of the so‐called China‐Pakistan Economic Corridor is credit positive for Pakistan because it will spur investment activity, boost bilateral trade flows and help ease the country’s growing energy shortages 
  • PkR 80bn were raised in the latest MTB auction against the target of PkR75bn, cut off yields for 3mth, 6mth and 12mth MTBs were 8.23% (down 13bps), 8.16% (down 21bps) and 7.98% (down by 30bps)
  • SECP has executed a series of initiatives limiting money laundering, insider trading and implementation of regulations regarding AMC’s and NBFI’s with the passing of the amended SECP bill in the senate
  • Result season for the calendar year end has come close to the finish line where merely few companies are left with their result announcement
  • The long awaited LPCL deal has finally came to a close with the end of closure period for entitlement for stock buyout by the Bestway Group
  • The details published about KEL selloff plan by Abraj has spurred pessimism

Top gainers of last week were: Cherat Cement, Hum Network Ltd, Pak Services, D.G.K.Cement, Sui South Gas, TRG Pakistan Ltd, Fauji Fert Bin, Attock Refinery Ltd., Fauji Cement Company Ltd and Kohat Cement

Top losers of last week were: Shezan International Ltd., Abbott Lab, Jah.Sidd. Co., Pak Tobacco Co, Muree Brewery Co Ltd, Jubilee Life Ins, Avanceon Ltd, Lafarge Pakistan, Kohinoor Energy and Bank AL‐Habib.

Top ten volume leaders: JSCL, KEL, EFERT, MLCF, FFBL, ENGRO, DGKC, BOP, HUMNL, TRG, and LPCL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 52.2
Target Price: PKR 61.0 

Cherat Cement (CHCC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 80.20
Target Price: PKR 95.00 

Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 38.2
Target Price: PKR 51.7

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 204.1
Target Price: PKR 256.5 

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 371.4
Target Price: PKR 442.00

Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 172.62
Target Price: PKR 221.00

Attock Petroleum (APL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 535.00
Target Price: PKR 626.00

Nishat Mills (NML) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 122.7
Target Price: PKR 163.5

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 106.5
Target Price: PKR 140.0 

Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 201.9
Target Price: PKR 255.0

Bank Al-Falah (BAFL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 30.5
Target Price: PKR 38.0

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 164.4
Target Price: PKR 210.0

Bank Al-Habib (BAHL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 46.98
Target Price: PKR 68.00 

Kot Addu Power Co (KAPCO) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 84.26
Target Price: PKR 97.0 

Following are few SELL recommendations:

Fauji Fert Bin Qasim (FFBL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 56.66
Target Price: PKR 46

Hub Power Co (HUBCO) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 91.00
Target Price: PKR 71.00

Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 52.72
Target Price: PKR 38.00

Nishat Chun Power (NCPL) – SELL
Current Price: PKR 53.44
Target Price: PKR 43 

Pakgen Power Ltd. (PKGP) – SELL
Current hn6Price: PKR 30.19
Target Price: PKR 24.00

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog /forum (http://www.karachistockexchange.org/) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

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