Karachi Stock Exchange Weekly Analysis 7 December, 2014

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) market movement was bullish, solid macro theme leads the rally. It has closed at a new all-time high of 32,149 pts. KSE-100 index gained 951 points (3.05%) to close at 32,149 points. KSE – 30 index reached on 20,818 by increasing 485 points or 2.39% percent.

As we move closer to results season for December quarter, we expect trading activity to remain strong, as likely results and expected cash payout will keep the market interest high. Market participants would likely track international oil prices with any unexpected recovery likely to fuel interest in E&Ps. Participation in ABL book building will also guide general sentiment. ADTO jumped 68% WoW to 350mn shares. Average daily value traded rose 51% WoW to US$166mn. FIPI clocked in negative US$1.8mn, compared to a higher outflow of US$4.5mn last week.

Following news have played vital role in Karachi Stock Market index movement:

  • The benchmark index trended upwards throughout the week, gaining 951pts (3.0%) as 11 year low monthly inflation (announced on Monday) fuelled positive sentiment
  • Banks and yield plays gained interest with MCB, UBL, HUBC and FFC adding 232pts through the week
  • Index heavyweight oil stocks traded lackluster, despite the slight reversal in international oil prices, with OGDC (+2.2%), PPL (-2.0%) and POL (-4.7%) cumulatively dragging KSE-100 by 21pts during the week
  • Trading activity picked up with average daily volumes clocking in at 233mn, up 80% WoW
  • Foreigners remained sellers for a second week in a row, selling USD1.76mn worth of shares
  • November CPI inflation came in at an 11-year low of 3.96 percent year-on-year, fuelling speculation of a discount rate cut in the next monetary policy statement in January 2015
  • Forex reserves slip below $13 billion
  • Pakistan receives $1bn sukuk payment
  • 5MFY15: Cement sales show healthy growth
  • Oil and gas sector: leading Russian E&P companies agreed to invest
  • OGDCL, PPL to explore gas in Turkmenistan
  • OGDCL makes discovery in Punjab
  • APTMA chairman says textile exports have risen
  • CASA-1000 agreement inked in Istanbul
  • ECNEC approves eight projects of Rs157.429bn
  • EU approves $800m for several projects
  • US extends conditional Pak military aid for one year
  • China, Pakistan likely to revise FTA
  • Govt for privatising power distribution, generation companies
  • Justice Sardar Raza named new CEC
  • Govt seeks ‘reasonable time’ to add name of abettors
  • Petrol price tumbles by PKR9.66 a litre
  • LNG import: PSO cancels tender in a serious blow to government
  • Inflation rate falls to 3.96% YoY in November
  • PKR 270 billion overdue as of December 2, 2014: IPPs poised to invoke sovereign guarantees
  • Fauji Fertilizer applies for 118MW plant license
  • Cement sales jumped 9.4% in first five months
  • Cotton production target again revised downward
  • The GoP’s commitment to provide gas to textile sector in winter by diverting gas from power sector
  • ABL privatization, successful completion of which will set the tone for HBL’s privatization

Top gainers of last week were: Sui North Gas Pipe., Engro Corp, Maple Leaf Cem., SSGC, NCL, TRG, Shezan International, Kohinoor Textile.

Top losers of last week were: AGTL, HCAR, PPL, POL, OGDC, Murree Brewery, Shifa International Hospital.

Top ten volume leaders: KEL, TRG, BOP, MLCF, JSCL.

Following are few BUY recommendations:

DG Khan Cement (DGKC) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 97.9
Target Price: PKR 118.2

Engro Polymer Chemicals (EPCL) - BUY
Current Price: PKR 12.5
Target Price: PKR 16.5

Fatima Fertilizer Co (FATIMA) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 33.1
Target Price: PKR 40.9

Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 217.8
Target Price: PKR 302.1

Pak Oilfields (POL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 425.8
Target Price: PKR 612.6

K-Electric Limited (KEL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 8.3
Target Price: PKR 12.1

United Bank Ltd (UBL) – BUY
Current Price: PKR 180.9
Target Price: PKR 225.0

Thank you very much for reading this article.

NOTE: The information posted in this blog (forum) is based on current affairs & investors point of view. There may be discrepancy in the ground realities.

Written by: Rana Khurram

No comments:

Post a Comment